What is a player prop hit rate, and does it predict anything?
Short answer: A hit rate is the share of recent games in which a player went over a given line, such as 7 of his last 10. It is a description of the past, not a probability: books already know it and price it in, samples of 5 or 10 games are noisy, and minutes or role changes can make old games irrelevant. Use it to ask why, not as a reason to bet: compare it with the probability the price implies, check the game log for the games behind it, and judge yourself on your price against the closing line.
What it measures
A hit rate counts the games in which a player went over a specific line: over 24.5 points in 7 of his last 10 is 70%. It depends on the line, so the same player can be 7/10 over 24.5 and 4/10 over 26.5. OpenSlate's player cards count only games he played, leave out pushes on whole-number lines, and show last 5, last 10, last 20, season, home, away and versus tonight's opponent.
Why 7 of 10 is weaker than it looks
- Small samples swing. A player whose true chance of going over is 50% will show 7 or more of 10 about 17% of the time by luck alone. Across a slate of a hundred props, a dozen or more will look "hot" for no reason.
- The book has seen it. Lines are set from projections that already include recent form. A 70% hit rate on a line priced at -150 (60% implied) is a much smaller edge than it sounds, if any.
- Context changes. Games without a now-healthy teammate, at different minutes or at a different line number aren't today's bet. The game log beside the hit rate is what tells you.
How to use one well
- Compare it with the price's implied probability, not with 50% (how to convert odds).
- Prefer longer windows (last 20, season) and check whether the short window disagrees for a reason you can name.
- Read the average beside it: averaging 26.1 against a 24.5 line says more than the count.
- Log the bet and judge yourself on the price against the close, not on whether hot streaks continued (closing line value).
A worked example
Say a guard's points line is 22.5, he has gone over in 7 of his last 10, and the Over is -140. The price implies 58.3% (140 ÷ 240). His 70% looks better, but over 10 games the honest range for his true rate is wide: anything from about 40% to 90% fits seven hits. Now open the game log. If three of those overs came while the other starting guard was out, and that guard is back tonight, the relevant sample is closer to 4 of 7. His last-20 rate is 11 of 20 (55%), and his average over the last 10 is 23.4. Put together, the evidence says the line is about right, not that the Over is a bargain.
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