Can you make money betting player props?
Short answer: Most bettors don't. Player props carry a margin of several percent, and in OpenSlate's research betting every line on either side lost money over thousands of props. A profit needs prices better than the fair price, which appear on a small share of lines and move quickly, and it takes hundreds of bets to tell a real edge from luck.
The margin you start against
Every two-way prop is priced so the two sides add up to more than 100%. That excess is the bookmaker's margin, and on player props it is larger than on spreads and totals. You only profit long-term if the prices you take beat the fair price by more than that margin, on average.
Live figures appear here while today's lines are posted.
What betting everything returns
In OpenSlate's research on 6,782 NBA props (January–March 2026), betting every Under at DraftKings returned −1.7% and every Over −10.4%; on 2026 NFL props the figures were −4.1% and −6.1%. Picking a side is not an edge. (Full table and sources.)
What an edge looks like
- A better price than fair. The common way to estimate fair is a sharp book's no-vig price (no-vig calculator). A bet is +EV only if your price beats it (EV calculator).
- Proof on new games. Many patterns look profitable in old data and vanish on games played since. OpenSlate keeps a ledger of rules it rejected for exactly that reason, including NBA rebound unders and every NFL version of its NBA rule.
- Enough bets. At even odds a single bet has a standard deviation of about 100% of the stake; a 3% edge needs several hundred bets before it is distinguishable from luck.
- Getting the price. Retail books move toward the sharp price, often within hours. A price you could not actually get is not a result you could have had; OpenSlate shows how long ago each pick was published and the worst price at which it still has an edge.
OpenSlate's own record
OpenSlate publishes every pick it has made since its current rules began, graded at the published DraftKings price, losses and voids included, on the record page. It is a small sample and past results do not predict future ones; it is there so the claim can be checked rather than taken on trust.
Related questions
- What is a +EV player prop?
- What does closing line value tell me?
- Why parlays cost more than the same bets straight
More: Removing the vig: how to turn two prices into a fair probability · Why Pinnacle is the reference price · Closing line value, explained · Why parlays cost more than the same bets straight · Why player prop lines move · Is DraftKings or Pinnacle sharper on NBA player props? · How do I calculate a no-vig price? · What is a +EV player prop? · Why do DraftKings and Pinnacle prop lines differ? · What is a Trap Over? · Are NBA rebound unders profitable? · How do I compare sportsbook prop odds for free? · What does closing line value tell me? · How often do prop lines move before tip-off? · What is the vig on DraftKings player props? · How do injury reports move NBA prop lines? · What is a market-maker sportsbook? · Is it better to bet the over or the under on player props? · Can you bet at Pinnacle from the US? · What free tools help with player prop betting? · Does betting DraftKings when it disagrees with Pinnacle work? · What does over/under mean on a player prop? · How do sportsbooks set player prop lines? · What is a sharp bettor? · How do I convert American odds to implied probability? · What is a steam move in sports betting? · What are alternate lines on player props?
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