How do I research a player prop before I bet it?
Short answer: Check five things in order: the best price across books for the exact line, how often the player cleared it lately and why, who is out on both teams, the opponent's pace and defense, and whether the line has moved today. Then log the bet with the price you took so you can compare it with the closing line. OpenSlate's player cards put all five on one page for free.
Every step below is on each player's card: open any player from tonight's props, or filter every line at once in the screener (free account).
1. Find the best price for the exact line
The same Over 24.5 can be -125 at one book and -105 at another. That 20 cents is about 4 percentage points of break-even, more than most bettors' edge. Compare the same player, stat and number; an alternate line at a different number is a different bet (why alternates cost more). The card lists every book we read for each line, with the best Over and best Under marked.
2. Read the hit rate, then ask why
"Over in 7 of his last 10" describes the past. Before trusting it, look at the game log: were those games at today's minutes? Was a teammate out? Is the line the same number it was then? Hit rates over 5 or 10 games are noisy, and the book has seen them too (what a hit rate does and doesn't tell you). Home/away and vs-this-opponent splits are small samples; treat them as questions, not answers.
Then check the card's vs DK's line row: how he did against the line DraftKings actually posted each game, not tonight's number. A player who is 7 of 10 over 22.5 but 4 of 10 against the lines he was given has mostly been beating numbers that no longer exist.
3. Check who is out, on both teams
A starter out changes minutes and shots for everyone left. The card shows the player's own status and everyone listed out for his team from the official NBA injury report. If the report changed in the last hour, the line may not have caught up yet, or it may already have moved past you (how injury reports move lines).
4. Look at the matchup
Pace sets the number of possessions; the opponent's defensive rating sets how efficient they are. Both are on the card with league ranks. A fast, weak defense lifts counting stats; a slow, strong one suppresses them. Books know this too, so it explains a line more often than it beats one.
5. See whether the line has moved
The card shows each book's first read today against the current price. A line that moved toward your side means the market agreed after you could have bet it earlier; one that moved away may mean news. Pro members also see the line's fair price from Pinnacle's no-vig and the EV at the best price (what +EV means).
Then log it
Tap Track on the card and the bet journal fills in the player, line, side, book and price. After the game it records the result and the closing price, so over a few hundred bets you can see whether your prices beat the close, the earliest honest sign of an edge (what CLV tells you).
What research can't do
None of this guarantees a winner. Books employ people who do all five steps for a living, and most props lose money for most bettors once the margin is paid (our numbers). Research helps you skip bad prices and stale lines; the journal tells you, honestly, whether it's working.
Related questions
- What is a player prop hit rate?
- What free tools help with player prop betting?
- Is it better to bet the over or the under?
More: Removing the vig: how to turn two prices into a fair probability · Why Pinnacle is the reference price · Closing line value, explained · Why parlays cost more than the same bets straight · Why player prop lines move · Is DraftKings or Pinnacle sharper on NBA player props? · How do I calculate a no-vig price? · What is a +EV player prop? · Why do DraftKings and Pinnacle prop lines differ? · What is a Trap Over? · Are NBA rebound unders profitable? · How do I compare sportsbook prop odds for free? · What does closing line value tell me? · How often do prop lines move before tip-off? · What is the vig on DraftKings player props? · How do injury reports move NBA prop lines? · What is a market-maker sportsbook? · Is it better to bet the over or the under on player props? · Can you make money betting player props? · Can you bet at Pinnacle from the US? · What free tools help with player prop betting? · Does betting DraftKings when it disagrees with Pinnacle work? · What does over/under mean on a player prop? · How do sportsbooks set player prop lines? · What is a sharp bettor? · How do I convert American odds to implied probability? · What is a steam move in sports betting? · What are alternate lines on player props? · What is a player prop hit rate, and does it predict anything?
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