Is it better to bet the over or the under on player props?
Short answer: In OpenSlate's data, Unders have lost less than Overs, but neither side beats the vig blindly. On 6,782 NBA player props from January to March 2026 where DraftKings and Pinnacle posted the same line, Unders won 52.8% and returned -1.7% at DraftKings' price; Overs won 47.2% and returned -10.4%. Books price more of their margin into Overs, the side recreational bettors prefer.
What the data shows
These are results on props where DraftKings and Pinnacle posted the same line, so every bet is judged at a real, published DraftKings price. "Return" is profit per $1 staked at that price.
| Sample | Props | Unders won | Under return | Over return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA, Jan 1 – Mar 19 2026 (46 game dates; points, rebounds, assists, threes, PRA) | 6,782 | 52.8% | −1.7% | −10.4% |
| NFL, 2026 weeks 1–7 (receptions, receiving yards, rush attempts) | 1,622 | 51.2% | −4.1% | −6.1% |
| NFL, full 2025 season (DraftKings pre-kickoff lines, 7 markets) | 9,149 | — | ≈ 0.0% | negative |
Pushes excluded. NFL 2025: Unders hit about 3 points more often than their no-vig price implied, which the margin cancelled almost exactly. Source: OpenSlate's research ledgers (published method on the methodology page).
Why the Over side does worse
Recreational bettors prefer Overs: rooting for a player to do more is more fun than rooting for less. A retail book can price that side less generously and still take the action, so more of the margin sits on the Over. Unders are closer to fair, but "closer to fair" is not "profitable": blind Unders still lost a little in NBA and NFL samples alike.
So which should you bet?
Neither side, blindly. The useful lesson is narrower: when you see an Over that looks cheap compared with a sharp book, be sceptical (OpenSlate calls these Trap Overs, and they have lost money in its research), and judge any Under by its price, not its side. The EV calculator does that arithmetic for one bet; tonight's props show both books' prices on every line.
Live figures appear here while today's lines are posted.
Related questions
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