How often do prop lines move before tip-off?
Short answer: Usually most of them. Player prop prices change as injury reports, starting lineups and betting action arrive through the day, and DraftKings and Pinnacle do not move in step. The figures on this page measure today's share of lines whose price changed at each book.
Measured today
Live figures appear here while today's lines are posted.
Why lines move
- Injury and rest news. The biggest moves: a teammate ruled out changes minutes and shots for everyone else (see injury reports).
- Starting lineups, confirmed shortly before tip-off.
- Betting action. At a market-maker book like Pinnacle, informed money moves the line; retail books also move to manage their exposure.
- Following the market. A book that sees other books move often follows.
What it means for comparing prices
A gap between two books is only as good as the time both prices were read. When most lines move during the day, a gap measured earlier may already be gone. OpenSlate shows the time of each book's price and flags comparisons where the two reads are more than 90 minutes apart. More in why player prop lines move.
Do lines move more close to tip-off?
News clusters late. Final injury designations and starting lineups usually arrive in the last hour or two before a game, and the biggest price changes tend to follow them. Earlier in the day, moves are usually smaller adjustments as the books respond to betting action and to each other.
Practical points
- A price is a snapshot. Note the time you saw it.
- If a line moves sharply, look for the reason before assuming one book is wrong.
- A price that has stopped moving is not necessarily right; it may simply be a quiet market with little betting.
OpenSlate reads both books through the day and keeps today's price history for every line, so movement can be measured rather than guessed.
Why one book moves more often
How often a book's price appears to change also depends on how often it is read. OpenSlate reads the books on a schedule, so a book read more often will show more small changes. The share of lines that moved at all is a fairer comparison than the raw number of changes, which is why the figures above lead with it.
Movement is not direction
A line that moved has told you that new information or money arrived; it has not told you which side is right. Lines can move one way and back again, and a move driven by public betting at a retail book can run against what the market maker believes. Watch where the market maker's price goes, not only whether something moved.
Related questions
- What is the vig on DraftKings props?: how to measure the margin, with today's medians at both books.
- How do injury reports move prop lines?: what books do when a player is ruled out, and why teammates move.
- What is a market-maker sportsbook?: how market makers and retail books differ, and why it matters.
- How do I calculate a no-vig price?: the three-step formula for removing the margin from any two-way price.
Every answer on these pages is market data and education. OpenSlate does not publish free picks and does not tell you what to bet; it shows prices and measurements.
More: Removing the vig: how to turn two prices into a fair probability · Why Pinnacle is the reference price · Closing line value, explained · Why parlays cost more than the same bets straight · Why player prop lines move · Is DraftKings or Pinnacle sharper on NBA player props? · How do I calculate a no-vig price? · What is a +EV player prop? · Why do DraftKings and Pinnacle prop lines differ? · What is a Trap Over? · Are NBA rebound unders profitable? · How do I compare sportsbook prop odds for free? · What does closing line value tell me? · What is the vig on DraftKings player props? · How do injury reports move NBA prop lines? · What is a market-maker sportsbook? · Is it better to bet the over or the under on player props? · Can you make money betting player props? · Can you bet at Pinnacle from the US? · What free tools help with player prop betting? · Does betting DraftKings when it disagrees with Pinnacle work? · What does over/under mean on a player prop? · How do sportsbooks set player prop lines? · What is a sharp bettor? · How do I convert American odds to implied probability? · What is a steam move in sports betting? · What are alternate lines on player props?
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