Methodology

How a pick gets onto the board, in the order it happens. Nothing here is a claim about results; it is a description of the rule.

1. The gap

Pinnacle is the sharp book: it takes the largest bets, moves first and runs the thinnest margin, so its prices are the closest public thing to the market's consensus. For every DraftKings player prop the lab reads, it looks up the identical line at Pinnacle, removes Pinnacle's margin to get a no-vig probability for each side, and compares that to the probability implied by DraftKings' price.

The difference, in percentage points, is the gap. A gap of +4.0pp on an Under means Pinnacle's no-vig view of the Under is four points more likely than DraftKings is charging for.

2. The rule

Each market has one frozen rule, written down and registered before it ran, and never adjusted after. It names the book, the market, the side, the gap band, the price window and the caps. The rule is the whole method: there is no discretion, no "feel", no late changes. The strategy registry lists every rule the lab has registered, including the ones that were rejected, and the rules' statuses.

The current NBA rule, in words: an Under on a DraftKings player prop qualifies when Pinnacle's no-vig probability for the Under exceeds DraftKings' implied probability by between 2 and 4.5 percentage points on the identical line.

3. Publication policy

• Gap 2 to 4.5pp: published as a pick.
• Gap above 4.5pp: published as a CHECK NEWS watch line, not a pick. A gap that large usually means one book has priced an injury or rest report that the other hasn't yet.
• One position per player per day, a cap per market and a cap per day. Points Unders on very low lines are excluded.
• No parlays. On the lab's own data, parlays priced far worse than the same legs taken straight. The packaging cost is the sportsbook's margin compounding; the board shows straights only.

4. States

The board is re-scanned every hour from 12:05 ET through the evening. Each pick is priced when it first appears and tracked once; its state tells you what has happened to that price since.

• LIVE: the price that qualified the pick is still available at DraftKings.
• MOVED: DraftKings has moved toward Pinnacle and the gap is gone at today's price. The pick stays on the board so you can see it moved; it is not re-priced.
• STARTED: the game has tipped. Shown as a record of what was published.
• CHECK NEWS: a watch line, as above.

5. Why most nights the answer is pass

The rule is narrow on purpose. On a quiet slate, or when DraftKings is in line with Pinnacle, nothing qualifies and the board stays short or empty. That is the rule working, not a failure of it. A long board is not a better board, and the lab never widens the rule to fill one.

6. Status: historically validated, not yet forward-validated

Every rule starts as a hypothesis, is tested against past seasons of prices the lab bought and stored, and only reaches the board if it clears that test. It then enters a forward test with a gate set in advance (a minimum number of legs and dates, verified closing prices). Until the gate is met, the registry labels it forward test. OpenSlate does not publish win rates, returns or graded results; if that ever changes, any figure will cover the full period from a stated start date, losses included.

7. The data

DraftKings and seven other US books, plus Pinnacle, are read every hour during the slate from each book's public odds. The board shows the lab's own reads as of the time on the board; it is not a live feed and a book may have moved since. OpenSlate is not affiliated with DraftKings, Pinnacle or any sportsbook, accepts no wagers and holds no funds.

21+. Informational and entertainment use only, not betting advice. Past results do not predict future results. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.