How do injury reports move NBA prop lines?
Short answer: When a player is ruled out or doubtful, books pull or reprice that player's props and move the props of teammates who gain minutes and shots. The NBA posts official injury reports through the day, and the two books do not react at the same moment, which is a common reason their prices on the same line briefly disagree.
The report
The NBA publishes official injury reports through the day, listing each player as out, doubtful, questionable or probable. Teams must update them, and late changes (a player upgraded or ruled out near tip-off) are common.
What books do
- The player: an out player's props are pulled; a questionable one's are often pulled or priced cautiously.
- Teammates: minutes, shots and rebounds go somewhere. Books raise lines or move prices for the players expected to absorb them.
- Timing: the books do not react at the same moment. Until the slower book catches up, the same line can be priced very differently, which is the most common source of large gaps.
Today, measured
Live figures appear here while today's lines are posted.
How to use it
Before comparing prices on a player, check his status and his teammates'. OpenSlate marks out, doubtful and questionable players on its pages from the latest official report. Large gaps are flagged for checking the news rather than taken at face value. See also how often lines move.
Questionable is the hard case
An out player is simple: his props come down and his teammates' adjust. A questionable player is harder. Books may leave his props up with cautious prices, pull them until the status is decided, or move teammates partway. Until the decision lands, both books are guessing, and they may guess differently.
Teammates matter most
The largest price changes after an injury are often not on the injured player but on the teammates who absorb his minutes: a backup guard moving into the starting lineup, a forward taking more rebounds. When you compare prices for any player, check his teammates' statuses too.
Reading the report
The official report lists each player's status and a short reason, and it is updated several times a day. The most important updates are usually the last ones before tip-off. A player listed as probable almost always plays; doubtful almost never does; questionable is genuinely uncertain. A change in status between two reports is often what sets off a line move, at one book first and then at the other, which is when the two books' prices on the same line are furthest apart.
Related questions
- What is a market-maker sportsbook?: how market makers and retail books differ, and why it matters.
- Is DraftKings or Pinnacle sharper?: why one book's prices are treated as the market's reference, and where that stops being true.
- How do I calculate a no-vig price?: the three-step formula for removing the margin from any two-way price.
- Why do DraftKings and Pinnacle lines differ?: the business, timing and news reasons two books disagree on the same line.
Every answer on these pages is market data and education. OpenSlate does not publish free picks and does not tell you what to bet; it shows prices and measurements.
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